Call for “fairer world” falling on listen ears

BY WORKU BELACHEW

Developing countries’ have amplified their most pressing concerns in their speeches at the UN General Assembly 2023 held in New York.  The centerpiece of the arguments they have made may be abridged as: “We, developing countries, are fade up with the current exploitative international system”. The leaders once again bring the urgency of creating a fairer global system before the august international body, the UN.

In his speech, Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Demeke Mekonnen had this to say: “We call for a more inclusive and effective multilateral mechanism that works fairly for developing countries.”

He hailed the BRICS for championing the call.    “Ethiopia  is grateful to have been invited to join the group.

Unless the world heeds to the concerns of the developing countries, the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals itself will be a far cry from being successful.

Africa, for instance, a continent dubbed as the “treasure chest of the world”, has not been able to utilize its resources to create jobs to its bulging youth population.

Diametrically opposite to the continent’s potential, the productive youth population only marches to their death in an attempt to cross the Mediterranean Sea.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has called the Central Mediterranean as the deadliest first quarter on record since 2017. It says over 400 migrants died only between January and March of 2023.  The April 2023 report further unveils the fact that over 31, 000 migrants arrived in Italy over the preceding months of the year. Most reports show that the majority of migrants originate from the Sub-Saharan Africa.

Politicians and scholars alike have, therefore, pin hope on reinforcing multilateral bodies such as the BRICS that could tackle the grim scenario befallen developing states.  

Over 40 countries submitted official requests to join BRICS. Countries including Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Belarus, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, the State of Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia had expressed their interests formally ahead of the August 2023 summit.

It seems that the bloc wants to better represent developing countries drawing members from each and every region and sub-region. Africa has three representatives in the bloc, South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt. India, China and Russia are generally from Asia while Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE from Middle East Asia. Latin America’s interests and benefits could be reflected through Argentina and Brazil.

BRICS will represent 30 percent of World’s Population and 47 percent of the global population with the new membership taking effect as of January 1^st, 2024, reports show.

The Ethiopian context

Despite the undesirable ramifications of the global pandemic and the two-year war at its north, not to mention a lingering skirmishes in some parts, Ethiopia’s geo-political location, the over 110 million population, and its resilient economy have made the country to join the BRICS. IMF 2023 forecast for Ethiopia shows as real GDP grows by 6.1 %. 

Clean energy and water supplies, including a relative low cost as compared to other areas, over 53 million active labor force, strategic location to the Middle East, Europe as well as Asia, Ethio-Djibouti electric powered railway, wide-ranging incentive packages, inter alia, placed Ethiopia among the top FDI destinations in Africa.

The BRICS + countries would seize these opportunities to expand their investment. And access to finance form NDB and may be the BRICS CRA would further augment doing business among themselves.

For Ethiopia, a country that has already a time-tested ties with both the BRICS and BRICS+ countries, the blessings coming from the new horizon is immense. At current, the bilateral trading between Ethiopia and members of the BRICS is not that significant, or the balance is skewed towards partners.

One of the most important trade and investment partner of Ethiopia, China, do business with Ethiopia worth in billions. Pertinent information shows that currently Ethiopia-China bilateral trade volume, in 2022 for instance, strikes at USD 2.67 billion. As of the end of 2022, the Chinese investment stock in Ethiopia stands at USD 3.257 billion. It is highly likely for this to expand more and more, per the information of Chinese Embassy in Addis.

If we take Ethiopia-India bilateral trade, India’s export to Ethiopia is worth 2,758, 000, 000 USD. The country’s import from Ethiopia’s market is 84,000,000 USD, per the information obtained from Indian Embassy in Ethiopia.  

More than 650 Indian companies are registered and as per the estimate, their cumulative investment is worth 5 billion USD. Areas they are engaging in include but not limited to  Plastic, Steel, Pharma, Textile, Vehicle assembling, Paper and Printing, Tanneries ( Leather Processing),    Meat production, Juite Bags, Cenent/PP Bags, Shoes, Transformers, Horticulture, Floriculture and ICT.

Ethiopia’s trade and investment relations with the other BRICS member, Russia, are making a steady growth.  Russia’s trade turnover with Ethiopia shows a  68.2 % decline in 2022 ,when compared to the preceding 2021. It is due to the reduction in the volume of Russian supplies. The volume falls form 225.2 million USD in 2021 to 71.7 million USD in 2022. On the flip side, Ethiopia’s imports increased by 18 % from 30.5 million USD to 36 million USD. Coffee supply is responsible for the expansion of the volume. It progressed from 20.7 million USD to 27.9 million USD.

Yet, the bilateral trade is peaking steadily between the months of January and April 2023 as compared to the same period of last year’s.  The volume is said to have upped by 56% from 10 million USD to 15.6 million USD. Russian export to Ethiopia has grown by more than double to 3.3 million USD. Its import is raised to 12.3 million USD from previous 8.5 million marking a 44.7 % increment.

Though the figures are not that significant, Ethiopia do business with almost all BRICS+ members, in the service sector for instance, Ethiopian flies to all the countries.

Global Chairman, Fairfax Africa Fund Zemedeneh Nigatu  subscribes the fact that Ethiopia’s economy is one of the resilliant ones. He says even during COVID, Ukrane-Russia conflict and other internal issues, IMF forecast the country’s economy to hit 6.1 percent. It represents one of the fastest five largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa,

In a nutshell, Ethiopia’s entrance to the bloc is likely to expand its fast-paced economy. There are also concrete advantages that the bloc could secure. Among other things, as Ethiopia is traditionally considered the gateway to Africa. BRICS + countries would access a market of a billion plus population and a lucrative investment destination.

Expanded BRICS shapes Int’l system for the better

BY WORKU BELACHEW

The five-member economic, if not geo-political, bloc is presenting itself as a competitive organ designed to fit in the interests of the developing countries that have long complained about the existing international system for it is tilted to the advantage of the developed world.

The club of five is enticing the interests of more economies from the global south with many of them making accession requests.

Figures speak volume as to the collective force Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa (BRICS) wields on the global socio-economic beam balance.

Data accessed from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and sent to this writer show, “the bloc at its current standing accounts for 26.4% of the world’s total land area and 41.93% of the world’s population. A 2021 estimation shows the fact that the five countries account for 25.24% of the world’s economy and 17.9% of the world’s trade.” According to the data, in 2022, the voting power of the five countries at the World Bank stands at 14.06%, and the total quota at the IMF is 14.15%.

With major regional economies like Ethiopia possibly greeted to the group, the BRICS inevitably transforms itself into a power which could shake up the existing international system for the better.

Developing countries from all geographic regions are submitting requests to join the emerging club with Ethiopia formally expressing interest to be part of it last June. South Africa’s, Asia and Middle-East Deputy Director-General at the Department of International Relations and Cooperation Amb. Anil Sooklal unveiled a list of countries that are desirous of joining the entity. Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan are on the list, Reuters reported on July 20, 2023.

There are enough reasons for developing countries to look for such alternative alliances.

Currently, global multilateral institutions from the UN, WB to IMF and what have you are receiving bitter censure for being skewed towards the West. Many slam Western countries for exercising their voting power to attach strings on financial grants and loans coercing receiving parties into accepting their policy prescriptions—often exacerbating problems and undermining well-grounded societal values.

Dawit Mezegebe is lecturer at Dilla University and a Ph.D. candidate at the Center for African and Asian Studies of the Addis Ababa University (AAU-CAAS) and is also a member of the African Studies Professional Association think-tank. He presented a paper in April 2023 at AAU-CAAS Pan-African Seminar Series entitled: The BRICS and Africa: Political-Economic Opportunities and Challenges.

He shared some of his findings and views with this writer in a recent interview.

BRICS vs global financial architecture

The existing International Financial Institutions (IFIs) are less “international” and are more “Western-controlled”, Dawit argues. Developing countries are pressured to satisfy the stringent preconditions of IFIs to be eligible to access finance. If you take IMF, for instance, it is all about ‘balance of payment’, when a country faces challenges to pay for its import or service, it may access finance after fulfilling policy conditionality.

The conditions might be unfit for your development context or may go against the socio-political situation of your country. Such facet contributed to the under-development of Africa; you can take the failed Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) as an example here.

[Arguments have not still saturated over the impacts of SAP on developing countries. Some research findings show that IMF’s conditions had contributed to the dwindling of standard of living. Its conditionalities included liberalizing the economy, focusing on export-oriented economic efficiency, privatizing pubic assets, and reducing government expenditures, among others. Others argue that stable government along with proper investment in pro-poor projects, and social services including health and owning policies to encourage domestic support could have made SAP a success story].

In this regard, Dawit says the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) is, however, always attached to commodity or is gold paid- sets an advantage for the developing countries. It is based on the amount of goods that they provide to the market that the exchange rate is balanced. The CRF sends a clear message for the IMF and the World Bank to rethink whatever position they pursue with regard to the under-developed countries.

Meanwhile, other commentators are optimistic about the potential advantage the bloc can give to regions like Africa.

Being home to over a billion people, Africa cannot take decisions on critical matters at the UNSC for instance. Africa can leverage the opportunity the bloc could offer to push for the reform of global institutions including the UN.

Cavince Adhere, a Kenyan scholar of International relations backs Dawit’s position. The former recently told China Daily Global Edition this; “in an increasingly polarized world, BRICS can create an enabling avenue for African countries to fashion a more inclusive global economic and political order which has been dominated by Western powers.”

He believes that developing countries, joining BRICS, can align themselves with a group that seeks to promote multi-polarity and a more equitable international system.

Various arguments run as to the essence of the BRICS. Some say it is a counterweight to G-7, a grouping of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Others are still arguing that the BRICS expansion is perceived with a grain of salt among the countries of the global north. Recently France requested to attend the BRICS’ 15th Leaders’ Summit to be held in Johannesburg slated for August 22-24/2023. But Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswomen Maria Zakharova questioned the motive behind the request as saying: “It would be nice if they [Macron’s office] told why they want [to attend the summit]. Do they want to once again make some contact to show Paris’ activity or is it a ‘Trojan horse’ of some sort — so let them explain.”

BRICS’ Gateway to Africa

In June this year, Ethiopia has formally shown interest for BRICS membership. Dawit buys the fact that Ethiopia’s economy is one of the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Due to this, Ethiopia has a lot to offer to the club socially, economically, geo-politically and culturally.

He has even attempted to identify what the grouping could benefit from Ethiopia. Since Addis hosts a large swath of foreign missions, being the third international seat next to New York and Geneva, the BRICS can establish its biggest African liaison office here to get its critical jobs done efficiently.

Geopolitically, Ethiopia’s importance is unparalleled. If one goes back to history, Judaism, Christianity and Islam penetrated through Ethiopia. It still positively influences the region both economically and in peace and security. The country has a tested-experience in pacifying the region and beyond alongside the AU and UN.

The country is a gateway to Africa. Ethiopian stretches wings in almost all major destinations of the world including in member states of the club; the industrial parks here are also creating extra advantage to the bloc. “I would argue that it is a huge achievement for the BRICS to accept Ethiopia’s request.”

Besides, there are enough scholars that subscribe to the fact that Ethiopia is considered as the mouthpiece of Africa. It did so with issues of climate change, just to cite. Africa was represented by Ethiopia in Copenhagen, Denmark, UN’s climate change conference back in 2009. It advocated for a billion people of the continent to pay 100 billion USD by 2020. Last June, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Ph.D.) also attended the Paris Summit for New Global Financing Pact in which he “emphasized on the need for implementing past pledges with resolve,” saying; “we should keep past pledges in climate finance and on the rechanneling” of Special Drawing Rights amounting to at least $100 Billion to MDBs [Multilateral Development Banks] such as the African Development Bank.”

No doubt, the situation is a win-win for both sides. Ethiopia can better access BRICS’ market, technology and knowledge. The New Development Bank (NDB) and the BRICS currency are no less important.

Ethiopia has a greater chance of joining the club. Its bilateral relations with almost all BRICS’ states are the oldest ones. Ethiopia and South Africa, for instance, are tied with a historic brotherhood. Ethiopia’s contribution to South Africa’s fight against the wicked apartheid regime was ever-indelible from anyone’s memory.

The relations whether you take it individually or collectively have great impact on Ethiopia’s accession to the bloc.

Besides, Ethiopia is a founding member of several global institutions. It played an enormous role for Pan-Africanism to take institutional shape in the form of the OAU/AU. The country is also a founding member of the UN as well. That is why the East African country plays a big role in the international political and economic dynamics. For scholars like Dawit, membership is a positive boost to the BRICS and will help it expand its impact in Africa.

The bottom line is—the emerging bloc looks like to be a remedy to rectify the unfair global order. Hopefully, the next summit of the leaders will take the right decision to include more regional economies and accelerate the effort toward the creation of a fair and balanced global order.

 The Ethiopian Herald August 20/2023

Russia and Africa: Joining efforts for peace, progress and successful future

In July 27-28, St Petersburg will host the Second Russia-Africa Summit and Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum. On the eve of these large-scale representative events which will bring together heads of states and governments, entrepreneurs, academia and public figures, I would like to share my vision of the development of Russia-Africa relations with the readers of The Ethiopian Herald on the African continent, outlining priority cooperation areas for the coming decades of the 21st century.

The partnership relations between our country and Africa have strong, deep roots and have always been distinguished by stability, trust and goodwill. We have consistently supported African peoples in their struggle for liberation from colonial oppression. We have provided assistance in developing statehood, strengthening their sovereignty and defence capability. Much has been done to create sustainable foundations for national economies. By the mid-1980s, with the participation of our specialists, over 330 large infrastructure and industrial facilities have been built in Africa, such as power plants, irrigation systems, industrial and agricultural enterprises, which are successfully operating to this day, and continue to make a significant contribution to the continent’s economic development. Tens of thousands of African doctors, technical specialists, engineers, officers and teachers have received education in Russia. I would like to specifically mention the traditionally close cooperation on the world stage, the firm and consistent advocacy rendered by the USSR and then Russia to African countries at international fora. We have always strictly adhered to the “African solutions to African problems” principle, standing in solidarity with Africans in their struggle for self-determination, justice and their legitimate rights. We have never tried to impose on partners our own ideas about the internal structure, forms and methods of management, development goals and ways to achieve them. Unchanged remains our respect for the sovereignty of African states, their traditions and values, their desire to independently determine their own destiny and freely build relationships with partners. We highly value the honestly-gained capital of friendship and cooperation, traditions of trust and mutual support that Russia and African countries share. We are brought together by a common desire to shape a system of relations based on the priority of international law, respect for national interests, indivisibility of security, and recognition of the central coordinating role of the United Nations. Today, the constructive, trustful, forward-looking partnership between Russia and Africa is especially significant and important. Major centres of economic and political power and influence are emerging in the world, which are asserting themselves more and more insistently, demanding that they be reckoned with. We are sure that a new multipolar world order, the contours of which are already seen, will be more just and democratic. And there is no doubt that Africa, along with Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, will take its worthy place in it and finally free itself from the bitter legacy of colonialism and neo-colonialism, rejecting its modern practices. Russia welcomes the rising international authority of individual states as well as Africa as a whole, their desire to make their voices strongly heard and to take the continent’s problems into their own hands. We have always supported the constructive initiatives of our partners. We stand for granting African countries their rightful place in the structures that determine the world’s fate, including the UN Security Council and the G20, as well as for reforming the global financial and trade institutions in a way that meets their interests. Regrettably, we see that the situation in the world today is far from stable. The long-standing conflicts that exist in nearly every region are deepening, and new threats and challenges are emerging. And Africa feels the burden of global challenges like no other part of the world. In such a challenging environment, we look forward to working with our African partners to shape a non-discriminatory agenda for cooperation. The strategic areas of our interaction are set by the decisions of the first Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi in late October 2019. The Russia-Africa Partnership Forum was established for their effective implementation. We have set up bilateral intergovernmental commissions for trade, economic, scientific and technological cooperation with many countries of the continent, and the network of Russian embassies and trade missions in Africa will be expanded. Further instruments are being actively developed to better structure economic relations and make them more dynamic. I would like to note with satisfaction that Russia’s trade turnover with the African countries increased in 2022 and reached almost 18 billion US Dollars. However, we are all well aware that the potential of our trade and economic partnership is much higher. Russian companies are interested in working more actively on the continent in the sphere of high technologies and geological exploration, in the fuel and energy complex, including nuclear power, in the chemical industry, mining and transport engineering, agriculture and fishery. The changes taking place in the world require the search for solutions related to the establishment of new transport and logistical chains, the formation of a monetary and financial system, and mechanisms of mutual settlements that are safe and free from unfavourable external impacts. We understand the importance of uninterrupted food supplies for the socio-economic development and political stability of the African states. On this basis, we have always paid great attention to issues related to the supply of wheat, barley, maize and other crops to African countries. We have done so both on a contractual basis and free of charge as humanitarian aid, including through the United Nations Food Programme. Thus, in 2022, Russia exported 11.5 million tonnes of grain to Africa, and almost 10 million tonnes more were delivered in the first half of 2023 – despite the sanctions imposed on our exports, which severely hamper the supply of Russian food products to developing countries, complicating transport logistics, insurance arrangements and bank payments. Many have probably heard of the so-called “grain deal,” whose initial purpose was to ensure global food security, reduce the threat of hunger and help the poorest countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America – the reason why Russia undertook the obligation to facilitate its implementation in the first place. This “deal,” however, while it was publicly advertised by the West as a gesture of goodwill that benefited Africa, has in fact been shamelessly used solely for the enrichment of large US and European businesses that exported and resold grain from Ukraine. Judge for yourselves: in almost a year, a total of 32.8 million tonnes of supplies were exported from Ukraine under the “deal,” with over 70 percent of the exports ending up in high- and upper-middle-income countries, including in the European Union, whereas such countries as Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, as well as Yemen and Afghanistan, received less than 3 percent of the supplies, i.e. less than one million tonnes. In the meantime, none of the “deal” provisions relating to the exemption from sanctions of Russian grain and fertiliser exports to world markets were fulfilled. Moreover, barriers have been mounted even to our attempts to supply free of charge mineral fertilisers to the poorest countries in need. Of 262,000 tonnes of goods blocked in European ports, only two shipments were delivered – one of 20,000 tonnes to Malawi and one of 34,000 tonnes to Kenya. The rest is still unscrupulously held by the Europeans. And this is a purely humanitarian initiative we are talking about, which should be exempt from any sanctions as such. Considering all these facts, there is no longer any use in continuing the “grain deal” as it has failed to serve its original humanitarian purpose. We argued against further extending the “deal,” which terminated as of July 18. I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis, especially as we expect another record harvest this year. Notwithstanding the sanctions, Russia will continue its energetic efforts to provide supplies of grain, food products, fertilisers and other goods to Africa. We highly value and will further develop the full spectrum of economic ties with Africa – with individual states as well as regional integration associations and, naturally, with the African Union. We welcome this organisation’s strategic course towards further economic integration and the formation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. We are ready to build pragmatic, mutually beneficial relations, including within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. We are also willing to step up cooperation with other regional integration organisations on the continent. In keeping with the existing tradition, we intend to continue providing assistance to African states in building their national human resource capacity. There are currently about 35 thousand students from the continent in Russia, more than 6,000 of them receive Russian government scholarships. Each year we increase the number of scholarships, promote paid higher education options and facilitate inter-university ties, which have gained significant momentum in recent times. Bringing humanitarian, cultural, sports and mass media cooperation to a whole new level would serve our common interests. I would like to seize this opportunity to invite our young African friends to the World Youth Festival, which will take place in Sochi, Russia, in March 2024. This large-scale international forum will bring together more than 20,000 participants from more than 180 countries for an informal, friendly and open dialogue that is free from ideological and political barriers, racial and religious prejudice and would consolidate the young generation around the ideals of lasting and durable peace, prosperity and creative spirit. In conclusion, I would like to reiterate that we attach great importance to the upcoming the Second Russia–Africa Summit. We expect that the Summit would adopt a comprehensive Declaration, a number of joint statements and approve the Russia – Africa Partnership Forum Action Plan to 2026. We are working to prepare an impressive package of intergovernmental and inter agency agreements and memoranda with individual states as well as regional associations of the continent. I am looking forward to welcoming the African leaders in St. Petersburg and stand committed to a fruitful constructive dialogue. I firmly believe that the decisions adopted at the Summit and Forum, coupled with continuous diversified joint work will contribute to further development of Russian African strategic partnership for the benefit of our countries and peoples. BY VLADIMIR PUTIN President of Russian Federation Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD TUESDAY 25 JULY 2023

 

Majority knocking on cockpit door to operate global politics

BY WORKU BELACHEW

The push for reforming the global bodies and correcting the way their system functions is gathering momentum with calls for pragmatic changes peaking over the last two months. Though raised in different parts of the world, the voices are one and the same—the world should heed to the voices made both in Europe and Central Asia. 

The capital of Kazakhstan, Astana 

Most recently, on the heels of a Summit for a new global financing pact that France hosted on June 22 and 23, 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) tweeted as problems are being stockpiled in Africa. 

The Prime Minister eventually recommended applying reforms. He said “We can only tackle cocktails of interconnected crises that we face—cost-of-living crisis, financial crisis, growth crisis and climate crisis—head-on if we implement reforms to strengthen the global financial architecture.  

Similarly, Kenyan President William Ruto boldly had argued in a panel discussion that French Pres. Emmanuel Macron moderated and whose video is available at a We Love Africa Facebook post. It seems that Ruto wants to see a global financial system that middle and small powers can reserve their own say. “We need a financial transaction tax at the global level where even countries like Kenya pay. We don’t want anything for free. You pay bigger because you have bigger economy, and we will pay commensurate to our economy. We want those resources not controlled by IMF and the World Bank, because you have the final saying. We want another organization of equals.”

What is more, Kazakhstan’s geostrategic location in Central Asia seems to have opened a window of opportunity for it to play a different role in international politics. This was manifested as the country’s President Kassim Jomart Tokayeve proposed a new track for world politics urging major powers to heed to the voice of ‘Middle powers’ at Astana International Forum (ASF) 2023 earlier in June.

Though lacking a precise definition as to which countries could exactly fall in the list of middle powers, it at least gives a clue that superpowers or the winner camp of WWII represent only a minority of the world’s population. But, whether one likes it or not, they have a profound influence in the world’s politico-economic activities. 

For instance, their actions are bringing about a seemingly divided world these days. Worse still, regions like Africa could suffer the most due to various reasons.

Kazakhstan and other like-minded countries believe that they are able to build a bridge to help humanity cross the gulf. Another instance to such middle power politics could be the African leaders peace mission headed to Kyiv and Moscow. Africans show indifference in matters that affect them directly and indirectly. 

The world had seen a similar diplomatic approach from mid-50s onwards. A figure counted countries were able to sense that the international community’s landscape had started to crack and they sat together in Bandung in April 1955, eventually bringing to the fore what was then called the “non-aligned movement”.     

It is good that the AIF brings to attention to the world leaders that “a cold-war-like” crisis is haunting humanity’s civilization— and they are trying to show that there is a way to curtail the eminent danger lying ahead of us.  

Astana entitled a panel discussion held at the capital’s magnificently architected conference hall as; ‘acting when others can’t: Middle power diplomacy in challenging times’. There is no doubting the fact that “others” are the superpowers. It is much symbolic that a country that implemented Non-Proliferation Treaty, Kazakhstan, has started pushing for the effectuation of alternative global diplomacy.  

The panel discussion held on the sidelines of AIF attracted the attention of many foreign journalists, and almost all seats at the venue were taken.   

Danny Qua, a professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore had been crystal clear when he articulated his thoughts. 

He argued that if democracy is the rule of the majority, then middle and small powers represent 80 percent of the world’s population. Therefore, according to him, the majority must decide the fate of humanity. He was epitomizing it that the “zero-sum game” of superpowers that represents 20 percent of the pie, has posed a a great danger on the doorsteps of humanity. 

The professor stressed; however, as middle powers should be “extra clear’ in what they want to achieve.  “We need to shake the shackles of realism. Realism comes with the idea that the great powers do what they will, and the rest of us suffer what we must.”

He furthered the concept as he went on to say, “We don’t want a world where trade opportunities are removed, sanctions cobble our economic prosperity. Trade conflict and techno nationalism, as IMF managing director, suggested could result in a seven percent reduction in the global economy. 

Per Worldometer’s available data (2017), the global GDP is as big as over 80 trillion USD, losing seven percent could be slashing approximately 5 to 6 trillion USD—an equivalent of Japan’s economy. The same argument was made by WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Astana Forum.

Danny was bold enough to say that the middle powers should not take either the sides. “We don’t want to be dragged into other people’s conflicts.”

He strongly argued that middle powers have a concrete role to play.

The Ottawa Arms Treat of the 1990s which is still relevant into 2000s was made by a collection of third-world and small nations to get rid of the world from landmines. Great powers disagreed first. Eventually, Joe Biden also agreed. 

Reports show that the landmine treaty was signed first by countries like Mauritius, Ireland and Canada. Ethiopia as well signed and ratified this document in 1997 and 2004 respectively.  

 Similarly, the Vienna Declaration of Human Rights of 1993 was a movement by middle powers and small nations to get great power in a way to acknowledge human rights around the world. And superpowers have come on board to be part of it. 

Danny argued that middle and small nations to at least be non-aligned to either side. 

Most African countries including Ethiopia remained non-aligned during the cold war being parties to the Bandung principles of course. But panelists like Amb. Thomas Greminger, Director of the Geneva Center for Policy since May 2021, seems to have perceived that the dividing lines have already haunted the world.

He called it a cold war 2.0 that visibly surfaced on the heels of the Ukraine-Russia war. “The cold war 2.0 comes with different confrontation, but with the same similarly, like the Cold War 1.0, having similar repercussions.” 

He cited the fact that there is an emerging ideology and breakdown of dialogue and cooperation. North America and Western Europe are taking the Western camp while some remaining multi-vector policies, and others still unable to decide—countries in the global south including Africa seem to have been waiting as to what could happen in the power competition among the superpowers. 

What next?

Middle and small powers have proven that they could put their impact to shape a better world. What is the missing link then?

The answer, as many would agree, is the lack of a fair and inclusive international system. This Link completes the international political and economic machinery so that it operates for all. No doubt, the Link cannot come by simply because we simply talked about it. Actors such as leaders of Africa should continue to get the nerve to demand their rights. 

Particularly, there is a need to make the UN look like its members. Today’s UN resembles, by and large, the superpowers. It is their interests that ultimately take center stage. Middle and small powers are only bystanders, to say the least. Or at least, they should sway to this or that side to make their interests protected even if they don’t like to.

Let this writer conclude with what President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in his speech at the Plenary Session of AIF: “For it to survive, the global system must work for everyone, promoting peace and prosperity for the many/ rather than for the few. 

 The Ethiopian Herald June 29/2023

Published on Majority knocking on cockpit door to operate global politics – Ethiopian Press Agency

Ethiopia’s AU-facilitated Peace Accord Signing

November 12, 2022   

In the lens of Pan-African media practice

BY WORKU BELACHEW

Part I

The African-Union-led Permanent Cessation of Hostility Agreement (PCHA) formally signed on November 2, 2022, would not only set the way for peace to reign in Ethiopia, but the entire process has once again branded Africa as a continent that is gifted with the wisdom and capability to translate the buzzword ‘African solution to challenges facing the continent.’

The critical questions here are: To what extent have African media houses that have a relatively wide online circulation practiced Pan-African journalistic practices to eventually achieve the aspirations of Africans? And do African media approach sensitive issues such as peace and security in a different way as compared to so-called global media? This piece of work attempts to give a bird-eye view of news reporting of some global media and certain notable African media houses concerning their framing of news stories on the PCHA event.

The news items of the media houses that also have high online visitors are observed in relation to some key aspects that have also become patterns in the media reporting of the conflict in Ethiopia. For instance, the phrases “unhindered access,” “communication shutdown,” and “starvation” have been appearing in most media reporting of the conflict. On the other hand, “African solution to an African problem,” “AU-led peace talks,” and “Silencing the guns” have frequently been mentioned. Many mention the latter in the context of fulfilling Africa’s aspirations expressed resolutely in Agenda 2063.

It requires a rigorous study to determine as to why the patterns appear in the media outlets but let’s see some theories related to issue in discussion.

Mass communications theory have it that media houses make conscious decisions in choosing what to report and how to report a kind of event which take us to the concept of “Media framing”. They frame a kind of event deliberately to influence public opinion, as to available literature, see more on https://masscommtheory.com. But one cannot overgeneralize the fact that the framing is the sole decision of the media houses.

A comparative media study by Hallin and Mancini (2004) suggests that there are four “dimensions” that play a part in influencing the media’s decision. Hallin and Mancini’s dimensions are: Political parallelism, Journalistic Profession, Media market and Role of the State. Political parallelism has to do with whether there is link between media houses and political parties or journalists political affiliations and so on. Journalistic Professionalism on the other hand is about the degree of autonomy of the journalists. According to their study, there are internal and external forces that exert influence on the journalists, not to mention journalists’ ethics …: What is more, Media Market delves into the circulation of newspapers or the outlets. Last but not least is the role of the state – restrictive or supportive.

The Pan-African aspirations

It is important to attempt to see what the aspirations of Africans are clearly and succinctly. Of course, some of them are expressed in black and white in the popular document of Agenda 2063. The rest comes under various topics. As regards the latter, the Pan-African Vision of 2063 says it all: “An integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens, representing a dynamic force in the international arena. Here one can easily see that we Africans have a vision of achieving peace through the efforts of our own citizens.

The document, Agenda 2063, #8, also under ‘African Aspiration for 2063’ states the confidence in the people of Africa in dealing with conflicts using African wisdom. Part of the aspiration reads: to “realize her [Africa’s] full potential in development, culture and peace and to establish flourishing, inclusive and prosperous societies.”

Concepts such as “peace” and “realize […] full potential” may stand out in the aspiration. And this tells us that Africans have the determination to unlock their full potential and take peace and other matters into their own hands. Or put it this way, though war and conflicts are not unusual in Africa, the initiative and practice of acting proactively and reactively to deal with the problems should be a matter of Africans and their institutions. This calls for the struggle to lessen, if not completely avoid, foreign meddling. Often, people use the catch-all phrase “African solution and African problem”—a term that African scholars are highly debating on claiming that it fails to properly reflect the challenges Africa has been facing. Somehow, the “African Solution” works despite the direct and indirect influences on the decision of Africans and their institutions.

But the term “African problem” raises many questions. Do African problems really originate only from the conflict of interest among people of a given nation? Yes, conflicts are unavoidable. But there are potential causes of conflicts. Say for instance, interstate border wars in Africa, in most cases, are related to colonial demarcations. Geopolitical interests and actions to dominate the big market and other resources of Africa at least play a great part as well. Last but not least, aspiration #4 of Agenda 2063 explicitly argues and puts mechanisms to fend off potential and actual challenges of peace and security in Africa.

ASPIRATION 4. A peaceful and secure Africa

Mechanisms for the peaceful prevention and resolution of conflicts will be functional at all levels. As a first step, dialogue-centered conflict prevention and resolution will be actively promoted in such a way that by 2020 all guns will be silent. A culture of peace and tolerance shall be nurtured in Africa’s children and youth through peace education.

How some global media framed PCHA

The 10-day peace talks held between the delegation of the GoE and TPLF started on October 24/25, 2022. The world had eagerly been waiting for whether the talks resulted in closing the two-year deadly chapter of war in Ethiopia. November 02, 2022, was the date scheduled by the African Union Panel to announce the results. Media houses representing both international and domestic ones were on the alert to break the news, no matter what. But the announcement scheduled at 4:00 in the afternoon was postponed by a few hours. Time had been ticking and the scheduled hour finally came. On and after the conclusion of the event, media houses reported about the PCHA in various ways but two frames were highly observable— the so-called “pressure frame” and the “pan-African frame”.

CNN- Its headlines read ‘Warring parties in Ethiopia agree on ‘permanent cessation of hostilities. The story was published on November 3, 2022. CNN’s story properly named the parties as the “GoE” and “TPLF.” The first paragraph of the story that media practitioners rather call it as a “lead sentence” is framed from the perspective of Disarming, Demobilizing and Reintegrating (DDR).

“Ethiopia’s Tigray rebels will eventually “disarm” and “reintegrate” with national forces, according to the statement. “We have also agreed on a detailed program of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration for the TPLF combatants, taking into account the security situation on the ground,” it read. The phrase “will eventually” is important here. It is a public knowledge that the CNN has not been impartial in the two-year war in the north. And maybe, “eventually” could mean, after all the bloody events, the result is “DDR”. For anyone who contemplates the CNN’s barrage of disinformation campaign, it wages against Ethiopia, the final Pan-African solution of resorting to peace might not be welcome. The story actually quoted the statement made by the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo’s statement is —minutes long. But only the “DDR” perspective was picked by the CNN.

On the same day, the accord was signed, Aljazeera published a story headlined: ‘Ethiopia: Government, Tigrayan forces agree to end two-year war’. The organization of the story that the media used was just a mix of “DDR” and “pressure-framing”. Here is its lead story: “The parties in the conflict in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray have agreed on a “permanent cessation of hostilities”, the African Union mediator said, just more than a week after formal peace talks began in South Africa.”

It continues: the parties agreed on “orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament” along with “restoration of law and order”, “restoration of services” and “unhindered access to humanitarian supplies”. The usage of the frame, whether intentionally or unintentionally tells us that most media are more interested in reporting on the dichotomy of winner/loser.

One can get a relatively different framing in a report published by Reuters. While it broke the news of the signing of the PCHA, describing it as a “dramatic diplomatic breakthrough.” it also highlights the fact that the process was an AU-led one—a fact that other media outlets shied away from mentioning.

In the second paragraph of its story, Reuters wrote this: “Just over a week after formal peace talks mediated by the African Union (AU) began in the South African capital Pretoria, delegates from both sides signed an agreement on a “permanent cessation of hostilities”.”.

Yet, DW’s news presentation seemed to have zoomed in on the “Pan-African framing. “The first three paragraphs of the news story, not to mention the lead story, in one way or another, had mentioned the role of the African Union. Both the headline and the lead sentence attempted to give due credit to the AU-led efforts.

CGTN’s news story as well could be described as a “Pan-African framing” of the event. The presentation of the entire story is quite mesmerizing for any reader who wants to get a different perspective, the writer believes. Let’s have an overview of the news story. The media house itself has a motto that goes: ‘See the difference. But, is there really a big difference?

The news is headlined ‘Ethiopian government and TPLF sign peace agreement in South Africa and presented with a nine-paragraph story highlighting some key concepts that have become a pattern in the media reporting of the northern conflict. Some of these are; “Cease hostilities;” “African Solution to African Problem;” “orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament;” along with “restoration of law and order,” “restoration of services;” and “unhindered access to humanitarian supplies;” “AU High-level Panel;” “communications shutdown of internet and telephone services in Tigray region has been among world’s longest”.

One can irrefutably say that only two phrases or patterns appear as pan-African issues—“African solution to African problem;” and “AU High-Level Panel”. The rest of the five phrases/terms are often used by most western media houses and one middle-eastern media mentioned above.

If we take a look at one of the terms, we can infer the purpose of the framing, whether or not the media house did it intentionally is still debatable. But the news story tells us this: “…communications shutdown of internet and telephone services…” The thing is that the story informs the reader that the government has shut down communication and the internet at all. The argument is exactly the “blame term” that most western media and rights-based institutions have widely used. On the flip side, the government of Ethiopia says communications infrastructure was damaged by the antagonist force in what could be described as a strategic move to weaken the central government’s capacity to control the tragic event.

For its part, TRT World published a story under the headline of ‘A New Dawn.’ It also did a follow-up story of ‘Excellent News’. In both stories, the media house neither reproduced the western media narrative nor did it have a Pan-African perspective.

The Ethiopian Herald November 12/2022

Also posted by https://panafricannews.blogspot.com/2022/11/ethiopias-au-facilitated-peace-accord.html

 

Are External Forces Emboldening the TPLF to Launch “Permanent War” Against Ethiopia?

BY WORKU BELACHEW 

Lawrence Freeman is a well-known Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Over the years, he has been an outspoken critic of western intervention in Ethiopian internal political affairs, he is known for his strong commentary and opinion in relation with the TPLF-provoked war in Ethiopia. The political and economist analyst has sat down with The Ethiopian Herald’s Worku Belachew on WhatsApp, to talk about Ethiopia’s current and wide-range of affairs. The following is the excerpt of the full interview.

I really appreciate your willingness for this interview. Previously, the terrorist TPLF confiscated humanitarian trucks and they used it for war purposes. But the international community’s response seems very weak. What do you comment on this?

 

 

 

See more on https://lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com/2022/09/03/are-external-forces-emboldening-the-tplf-to-launch-permanent-war-against-ethiopia/